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Is Canada in a recession? The data says we’re teetering on the brink.

It’s safe to say none of us saw this mess coming. Who knew when Canadian grizzly bears went to sleep last fall amidst a concerned buzz over how the U.S. election would turn out, they would wake up in the spring to threats of annexation, a global trade war, plunging stock portfolios and a federal election with one of the highest voter turnouts in recent history?After all the economic and political turmoil of the past few months, it’s easy to wonder if we’ve entered full-blown recession territory,

notes. But are we in a recession? Here’s what the data says.

Canada’s GDP is declining

Early data suggests that Canada’s real GDP growth went down in Q1 2025, but this does not (yet) indicate a recession as real GDP growth was up the previous quarter.

The most common recession indicator is falling gross …

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