Christopher Worswick is chair of the economics department at Carleton University.
The surprising swing to the Liberals in the most recent federal election has been poorly received by many residents of the Prairies, renewing interest in Western separatism. While separation by a Western province appears unlikely, the move by Premier Danielle Smith in Alberta to make it easier for a citizen-led referendum means that national unity concerns will remain front and centre for the foreseeable future.
Political uncertainty is normally seen as a negative for overall investment, but the case of the oil and gas sector in Alberta may well be different. Investors are forward-looking, and if oil and gas companies see that the Alberta separatist movement has support and momentum, they may anticipate a more positive regulatory environment for their sector in the future.
We can see parallels in the past. When polls in the 1960s showed strong support for Quebec sovereignty, successive federal governments changed policy so …